Winning Words 8/23/11
“Jesus said, ‘I am the rock, paper, scissors.’” (Unvirtuous Abbey) I read that the rock, paper, scissors game originated in China 2200 years ago. I also read that there are worldwide tournaments for the game, with referees and trophies. Hints for how to win at R, P, S are on the blog. But today’s quote is about something else…the ultimate power of God. Follow God’s “hints,” and you’ll win the game of life. ;-) Jack

HOW TO WIN AT ROCK, PAPER, SCISSORS LiveScience By: Natalie Wolchover

In the game Rock, Paper, Scissors, two opponents randomly toss out hand gestures, and each one wins, loses or draws with equal probability. It's supposed to be a game of pure luck, not skill — and indeed, if humans were able to be perfectly random, no one could gain an upper hand over anyone else.

There's one problem with that reasoning: Humans are terrible at being random.

Our pathetic attempts to appear uncalculating are, in fact, highly predictable. A couple of recent studies have provided insights into the patterns by which people tend to play Rock, Paper, Scissors (and why). Abide by them, and you'll be riding shotgun and eating the bigger half of the cookie for the rest of your life.

According to Graham Walker, veteran player and five time organizer of the Rock, Paper Scissors World Championships, there are two paths to victory in RPS: Eliminating one of your opponent's options — for example, influencing her not to play Paper — and forcing her to make a predictable move. In both cases, Walker wrote on the website of the World RPS Society, "the key is that it has to be done without them realizing that you are manipulating them."

Those two overarching strategies can be translated into executable moves, starting with the opening one. Expert players have observed that inexperienced ones tend to lead with Rock. Walker speculates that this may be because they view the move as strong and forceful. Either way, remember the mantra "Rock is for rookies," and simply throw Paper at the outset of a game to earn an easy first victory.

"Rock is for rookies" should be kept in mind against more experienced players, too. They won't lead with Rock — it's too obvious — so use Scissors against them. This throw will either beat Paper or tie with itself.

Double trouble

If your opponent makes the same move twice in a row, they almost certainly won't make that move a third time. "People hate being predictable and the perceived hallmark of predictability is to come out with the same throw three times in row," Walker wrote. [Why Aren't We Smarter?]

With that option eliminated, you're guaranteed either a victory or a stalemate in the next round. If you see a "two-Scissor run," for example, your opponent's next move will be either Rock or Paper. If you throw Paper, then, you'll either beat Rock or play to a draw.

Like a Jedi, you can use the power of suggestion to influence your opponent's next move. When discussing a game, for example, gesture over and over again with the move that you want your opponent to play next. "Believe it or not, when people are not paying attention their subconscious mind will often accept your 'suggestion,'" Walker wrote.

This trick may work because of humans' tendency to imitate one another's actions. A recent study on decision-making in Rock, Paper, Scissors, published in the July 2011 issue of the Proceedings of the Royal Society B, found that players often imitate their opponents' last moves. Human mimicry seems to be involuntary.

Announcing your next move before a round starts also seems to be an effective mind trick, though it'll only work once. If you say you're going with Paper, for example, your opponent thinks you won't, Walker explained. Subconsciously, they'll shy away from Scissors (which beats Paper), and choose Rock or Paper instead. When you do end up throwing Paper, you'll score a victory or a tie.

According to Walker, your opponent will often try to come back from a loss or tie by throwing the move that would have beaten his last one. If he lost using Rock, for example, he'll likely follow up by throwing Paper. Knowing this, you can decide what move to follow with yourself.

Interestingly, monkeys show the same behavioral pattern. In a study detailed in the May 2011 issue of the journal Neuron, researchers at Yale found that rhesus monkeys trained to play Rock, Paper, Scissors tended to react to a loss by playing the move that would have won in the previous round. This suggests monkeys, like humans, are capable of analyzing past results and imagining a different outcome, the researchers said. [The 6 Craziest Animal Experiments]

Humans can take the logic one step further, by imagining what their opponents might be imagining.

There's one more ploy to fall back on — that is, if you're willing to sacrifice your honor and integrity for a victory. "When you suggest a game with someone, make no mention of the number of rounds you are going to play. Play the first match and if you win, take it is as a win. If you lose, without missing a beat start playing the 'next' round on the assumption that it was a best two out of three. No doubt you will hear protests from your opponent but stay firm and remind them that 'no one plays best of one,'" Walker wrote. A low blow, but a smart one.

Had no idea so much strategy was possible in Rock, Paper, Scissors? The rules of the game itself may be simple, but the human mind is not.

FROM SH IN MICHIGAN: Wow, who would have thought there would be so much predictability in the supposedly randomness of just three choices. Enjoyed the information about the monkeys too. Interesting to read. But most of all agree with your WW this morning.////FROM JACK: Life isn't as random as we sometimes think.

FROM RM IN IOWA: I find that the only way we can improve our minds is to ask questions and seek answers. So, I ask the question "Was the scissors and paper invented back 2200 years ago?" I believe rock was here then and was also used to cut natural materials such as animal skins, rock surfaces and tree bark. But, this has nothing to do with the world wide tournament of winning life.////FROM JACK: I agree. We learn by questioning. But is something appears in Wikipedia, it must be true. Or, do you question that? According to Xie Zhaozhe's (谢肇淛) book Wuzazu (五杂组), in the Chinese Ming dynasty period, the game could date back to the time of Chinese Han dynasty, it is called The Gestures (手势令). Li Rihua's (李日华) book Note of Liuyanzhai (六砚斋笔记) also reveals this game, calling it shoushiling (手势令), huozhitou (豁指头), or huoquan (豁拳). So, does that answer your question? Responding to question #2 about a connection with the game of life....An advantage in being able to win a game is to follow "hints" given by the pros. God, the ultimate pro, gives hints on how to win at the game of life. Follow those hints, and you will have a good chance at winning.

FROM TAMPA SHIRL: Actions speak louder than words. Being a good example is what really matters in life. I liked the UA advice about prayers. Just do it. Also their saint was interesting, St. Arnold, the Belgian brewer of beer.////FROM JACK: It sounds as though you're a fan of this Abbey and St. Arnold. At least, you have more information about UA and SA than I do. You've piqued my interest.

FROM PLAIN FOLKS CHESTER: Rock, paper, scissors is much like a Mobius Loop. Never ending. Did you know that if you slit a Mobius Loop along its length, you end up with a Loop twice the original size? And on and on and on.////FROM JACK: It sounds as though you also play the rock, scissors, paper game, with that guy in the mirror. Have either of you ever won, or do you just play onandonandonandonandonandon?////FROM PFC: I stand with my back to the mirror so he can't see.////FROM J: He's looking over your shoulder.